Respuestas completas al estudio Delphi sobre escenarios para Latinoamérica al año 2030 (en CD-ROM y en Internet: 312 páginas)
1. Introduction 2
2. Methodology 2
2.1 The Precursor Study 2
2.2 The Current Study 3
3. The Sample 5
4. Suggested Scenario Inputs 8
5. Next Steps 9 Appendix A: Inputs for Scenario 1 11
Appendix B: Inputs for Scenario 2 123
Appendix C: Inputs for Scenario 3 174
Appendix D: Inputs for Scenario 4 219
Appendix E: List of Participants 259
Appendix F: The Characteristics Matrix 299
Appendix G: The 15 Global Challenges for Latin America 307
In the period between February 23 and March 31, 2011, a Real Time Delphi (RTD) study was conducted by the Latin American Nodes of the Millennium Project to collect opinion from global experts about a set of four scenarios which depict possible future states of Latin America between 2010 and 2030. This work was based on an earlier RTD conducted in 2009-2010 in which experts were asked to identify future developments important to Latin America over the next 20 years, and their likelihood and significance. This led to the formation of four draft scenarios which were the focus the present study. In this case, invited experts were asked to complete the draft scenarios by providing an open ended response to blanks which appeared in the scenario texts. The questionnaire was written in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese, and presented four scenarios of 10 paragraphs, with blanks in each of the 40 paragraphs. Respondents were asked to make contributions wherever they chose (omissions were acceptable) and to revisit the questionnaire whenever they chose to see the responses made by others and to add to or revise their earlier answers.
About 475 from 60 countries singed on the study, and of those, more than 230 participants gave at least one answer. The response was excellent; some 2,600 suggestions for “filling in the blanks” were made. The suggestions of the respondents for “filling in the blanks” were in three languages and ran the gamut from one word responses to answers that were several pages in length.